About Lottoeule
Lottoeule answers a very specific question: How much would you have won or lost if you'd played the same German Lotto 6aus49 numbers every week since 9 October 1955? We also calculate what would have happened if you'd put the same money into an ETF savings plan instead. Both with real data, no esoterics, no sales gimmicks.
Who we are
Behind Lottoeule is Kapierstau Development UG (haftungsbeschränkt) based in Bernau near Berlin, Germany. We are not a lottery operator, not a bank, not financial advisors. We like data and believe that publicly available lottery numbers and freely available market data are enough to finally answer an old question with facts.
Full provider information is in the imprint. Data processing and tracking are disclosed in the privacy policy.
What we actually do
- We calculate. Picks against every single draw since 1955. A combo from 1956 is scored against 1956 quotes, not today's. DM/EUR conversion and stake adjustments over the decades. No estimates.
- We compare. The same total stake invested in a broad ETF savings plan over the same period, using historical S&P 500 Total Return data.
- We explain. Probabilities, myths like "hot numbers", prize-quote optimization. Including uncomfortable findings.
Where the data comes from
- Lottery numbers and prize quotes come straight from lotto.de, the official site of the German lottery association DLTB. We only use the main Wednesday and Saturday draws.
- S&P 500 performance comes from a public Total Return dataset (Robert Shiller, Yale, plus more recent monthly sources).
- Probabilities and comparisons are sourced from reliable publications cited in each article. Example: NOAA for lightning-strike risk, Tulane University for asteroid-impact risk.
Images and illustrations
Every image on this site, the owl logo, the OG preview images and all article illustrations, was created with the help of AI image generators. We provide the description, the owl is rendered in the generator.
The images illustrate, they do not document. Where we show numbers, data or historical events, the values come from the primary sources we name below. Not from the images.
Sources & references
So our claims stay verifiable, here are the external primary sources our articles rely on. Individual articles link directly to this section at the relevant points.
- Lottery numbers, prize quotes, payout ratio: lotto.de, game rules & quotes (official DLTB rules incl. ~50% payout ratio). Historical draws come via the JSON API of lotto.de.
- S&P 500 Total Return: Robert Shiller, Online Data (continuous monthly values back to 1871, dividends reinvested).
- Combinatorics & probabilities: The 1 in 13,983,816 for six matches is 49 choose 6, see Wikipedia, Lottery mathematics and Wikipedia, Binomial distribution for the standard deviation across 5,000 draws.
- Mathematical fallacies: Wikipedia, Gambler's fallacy and Wikipedia, Birthday problem.
- Inflation, consumer prices: Federal Statistical Office of Germany, Prices.
- Comparison values (lightning, asteroids, royal flush): NOAA / National Weather Service, Lightning Safety and Tulane University risk estimates. Per-row derivations are listed directly in the odds article.
- Gambling addiction help: German Federal Institute of Public Health (BIÖG, formerly BZgA), hotline 0800 137 27 00.
What we don't do
- No play recommendations.
- We don't sell or broker lottery tickets.
- No trackers beyond anonymous reach measurement (self-hosted Umami).
- No storing personal data without clear cause.
Responsible play
Gambling can be addictive. If you or someone in your circle notices play getting out of hand, find help on our information page or via the BZgA hotline 0800 137 27 00 (free, German-speaking).