Lottery vs ETF? 70 years of data reveal the brutal truth
If you had played the same six numbers (plus, since 1991, the Superzahl) every week since the very first German Lotto draw on 9 October 1955, your total stake today would be roughly €4,700. Statistically, you'd have got back about half. Nearly seventy years of loyalty to your favourite numbers. And a clear net loss.
This page doesn't argue the maths in theory. It runs your numbers against every single one of the 5,000-plus real draws since 1955 and compares the result with what would have happened if you'd put the money somewhere else: under your pillow, into a savings account, into an S&P 500 ETF. Spoiler: even doing nothing beats playing.
The maths behind Lotto 6aus49
The probability of hitting six numbers plus the Superzahl is 1 in 140,343,756. Playing every Saturday, you'd statistically need 2.7 million years to land that jackpot once. Six numbers without the Superzahl: 1 in 15.5 million. Three matches (the most common winning class): 1 in 57.
That's not bad luck. It's design. German Lotto pays out around 50 % of stakes as winnings. The rest goes to operating costs, taxes, and good causes. That ratio isn't the result of a bad year. It's been structurally stable since 1955. In other words: in expectation, you lose 50 cents on every euro you stake.
Three player types, three balances
To make this concrete, we ran three typical play profiles against every draw since 1955 (~5,000). Per-tip cost reflects the actual epoch: 0.26 DM in the 1950s, up to €1.20 today.
The casual player: €2 per week
One tip per week, always the same numbers. Total stake since 1955: ~€4,700. Expected winnings: ~€2,300. Net: −€2,400. On average, half ends up with the lottery operator. Not bad luck. Design.
The mid-range player: €10 per week
Five tips per week. Total stake since 1955: ~€23,500. Net: −€11,700. Some of these players landed four or five matches in the 70s or 90s. It doesn't change the picture. The expected-value profile is unchanged.
The heavy player: €30 per week
Fifteen tips per week, full subscription. Total stake: ~€70,000. Expected net: −€35,000. At this level, a full playing life loses you the price of a mid-range new car. Half a deposit on a flat.
Four ways to handle that money. Compared
Lottery vs ETF isn't the only question. What if you'd literally stuck the money under your pillow? Or in a savings account? Here's the comparison for the mid-range player (€10 per week, over 40 years of play):
| Scenario | Total stake | Final value | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Keep playing Lotto | €20,800 | ~€10,400 | −€10,400 |
| Under the pillow | €20,800 | ~€7,700 purchasing power | −€13,100 (inflation) |
| Savings account (2 % p.a.) | €20,800 | ~€31,700 | +€10,900 |
| ETF savings plan (7 % p.a.) | €20,800 | ~€114,000 | +€93,200 |
Lottery ends up roughly tied with „money under the pillow". Both lose, just differently. The savings account doubles your money in expectation. The ETF multiplies it by six. We use the S&P 500 with dividend reinvestment (Total Return); the MSCI World produces very comparable results in the long run.
Even the pillow. Literally doing nothing. Beats Lotto's expected value by a hair. Inflation eats quietly; Lotto eats loudly.
„But somebody does win"
True. Somebody wins. Exactly one in 140 million per jackpot. If you want to be there for it, that's a perfectly fine choice. As long as you see it for what it is: entertainment, not investment. A cinema ticket costs €14, a lottery ticket costs €6 and gives you a few days of daydreaming. On those terms, lottery is a fair price for hope. Just not a savings plan.
Trouble starts when the ticket slides from the entertainment budget into the retirement budget. Replacing a 7 % expected-return mix with a 50:50 expected-loss product isn't a strategy. It's a leak.
What you could do now
You don't need to decide anything. But if the numbers gave you pause:
- Cap the play budget. Set yourself a monthly limit (€10? €20?), treat it as the price of admission for the daydream, and don't go over it.
- Save the difference. If you currently spend €30/week and drop to €10, that's €20/week. About €87 a month. More than enough for an ETF savings plan.
- Start small. Most brokers let you start ETF savings plans from €1 per month. You don't need to switch everything at once.
- Understand what you're buying. A „world ETF" (MSCI World or S&P 500) isn't an insider tip. It's the boring, conservative setup that has worked mathematically for decades.
FAQ
But an ETF can lose money too, right?
It can. Year-on-year. Yes, the S&P 500 has had several years since 1955 with −20 % or worse. Across any 30-plus-year holding period, it has finished positive. Lottery, in expectation: never positive.
What about Eurojackpot, Spiel 77, Glücksspirale?
Same structure, similar payout ratios (40–60 %). The argument is unchanged: in expectation the product loses money. By design.
Why the S&P 500 instead of the MSCI World?
Because we have continuous data back to 1871 (Shiller dataset). The MSCI World only exists since 1969 and produces very similar results for the last 50 years. Not 1:1, but the trend is the same.
Should I stop playing the lottery if I take this seriously?
You don't have to. Lottery is fine as entertainment. It just isn't wealth-building. Separate the two budgets. And then play because you want to, not because you hope.
What if I only play the lottery once a year, on New Year's Eve?
Same maths, but the damage is contained. One ticket per year for €1.20 is a gesture, not a wealth-killer. The expected loss of about €0.60 per year won't show up in any household budget. It only gets dicey when "just at New Year's" turns into a weekly reflex.
Why do you calculate 6aus49 and not Eurojackpot?
It's a data-availability thing. 6aus49 has continuous public data since 1955, Eurojackpot only since 2012, and twelve years isn't enough to draw real statistical conclusions. 6aus49 is also the most-played lottery in Germany, so it's the biggest actual outflow per capita. And the logic carries over anyway: if a 50 % payout ratio can't beat an ETF, then 35–45 % at Eurojackpot certainly can't.
ETF returns are taxed in Germany, lottery winnings aren't, right?
Correct. In Germany lottery winnings are tax-free, ETF returns are subject to the flat capital-gains tax (25 % plus solidarity surcharge, plus church tax if applicable). Does that break the comparison? No. Even after the full capital- gains tax, the end value for the average player (40 years, €10/week) lands at roughly €91,000 instead of €114,000 untaxed. The lottery balance is still ~−€10,400. The tax advantage doesn't save the lottery, because in expectation there's nothing to be taxed.
What if I've already played the lottery for 30 years?
That money is gone, sunk cost. What matters more is what you do with the next 20 years. At €10 per week and a 7 % p.a. ETF expected return, after 20 years you'd have around €27,000. Continuing to play the lottery: about −€5,200. Switching still pays, even now. The math, at least, is on your side.
Sources
- Lottery draws, prize quotes, payout ratio: lotto.de, game rules (official DLTB source).
- S&P 500 Total Return: Robert Shiller, Online Data (monthly values back to 1871).
- Lottery combinatorics (1 in 13,983,816): Wikipedia, Lottery mathematics.
- Inflation assumption: Federal Statistical Office of Germany, Prices.
- Full methodology: Sources & references on the about page.
More from the guide
Gambling can be addictive. If you or someone close to you feels their playing is getting out of hand, you'll find help on our information page or by calling 0800 137 27 00 (BZgA, free).