Forced Payout in German Lotto: Why It No Longer Exists
Many lottery players still believe that the jackpot eventually has to be paid out no matter what. If nobody gets six correct numbers plus the Superzahl, the money has to flow to prize class 2 at some point, or to the next class below that, or somehow be forced out of the system. For decades, that idea was correct. Since 1 November 2023, it no longer is.
If you currently see the jackpot sitting at 50 million euros for weeks without moving, you are seeing the direct consequence of this rule change. There is no guaranteed payout anymore. In theory, the jackpot can remain capped at 50 million indefinitely, until someone hits it.
The old rule: 13 draws, then done
The original forced payout was a simple rule with a lot of symbolic weight. If the Lotto jackpot was not hit in twelve consecutive draws, it had to be paid out in the 13th draw. If there was a winner in prize class 1, everything proceeded normally. If there was not, the jackpot moved to prize class 2 (six correct numbers without the Superzahl). If that class was empty too, the money moved down to the next lower prize class until someone got it.
That rule had a curious side effect: some of the biggest Lotto wins in German history did not come from six correct numbers plus the Superzahl, but from forced-payout six-number wins. On 14 May 2016, the first forced jackpot payout took place because prize class 1 was still empty after 13 draws. One player won more than 37 million euros in prize class 2.
The interim rule: cap at 45 million
From 23 September 2020 to 31 October 2023, a new logic applied. Instead of counting 13 draws, a fixed amount of money became the trigger. If the jackpot reached 45 million euros and was not hit in the next draw, the forced payout took place. Again, the money moved to the next lower occupied prize class.
This rule was administratively simpler than counting 13 draws, but it worked in basically the same way: there was always a point at which money was forced out of the system. The last forced payout in German Lotto took place on 30 September 2023, just one month before the rule was abolished. In total, there were eight forced payouts between May 2016 and September 2023.
Since November 2023: cap without payout
With the rule change of 1 November 2023, the forced payout was abolished completely. Since then, the jackpot may grow to a maximum of 50 million euros, capped by the 2021 State Treaty on Gambling. If it is not hit, nothing happens. The jackpot stays at 50 million until someone eventually gets six correct numbers plus the Superzahl.
What happens to the excess stakes that, under the old rule, would have made the jackpot grow further? They flow into a so-called jackpot overflow. If more money is taken in during a draw than may legally be paid out, the excess amount is paid out in the first draw after the maximum jackpot has been hit. The next round then does not start with a one-million starting jackpot, but higher. That is the savings-pot logic. Our guide Where does the lottery money go? breaks down where retained lottery money generally flows.
Why change the rule at all?
At the time, Lotto Niedersachsen was the lead company of the Deutscher Lotto- und Totoblock. The official reasoning behind abolishing the rule had two layers. First, the maximum jackpot should only be hittable with the actual top combination, meaning six correct numbers plus the Superzahl. That was meant to strengthen the game's character as a game of chance. Second, the smaller starting jackpots after a maximum jackpot had been hit were to be reduced, making the game more attractive for regular players and subscription players.
The unspoken third motivation is in the data. Forced payouts in prize class 2 produced many winners at once. That diluted the individual payout. If 37 million euros in forced payout money were split among 14 winners, each person ended up with 2.6 million euros, not the emotionally promising mega win. With the new rule, the 50-million impression remains intact until it goes to exactly one person.