Jackpot hit odds
How likely is it that someone wins the jackpot? And how do you actually arrive at 1 in 140 million?
What is the jackpot hit chance?
The jackpot hit chance is the probability that, in a single draw, someone hits six correct numbers plus the Superzahl. It is not a fixed number. It depends on how many lines were played that week. This page explains how we calculate it, what the math behind it looks like, and how the jackpot hit chance has actually played out over the years.
The math, step by step
- First ball: The drum is full. 49 balls, 6 of them are yours. The chance that your first pick is among them is 6 in 49. A little over 12 percent. Pretty realistic.
- Second ball: Things get tighter. One ball is out. If the first one was already one of yours, 5 of yours remain among 48 balls. Chance: 5 in 48. Again, a bit over 10 percent. You multiply the two because both have to happen.
- Six times in a row: 6/49 × 5/48 × 4/47 × 3/46 × 2/45 × 1/44 = 1 in 13,983,816. That's the chance of 6 correct numbers without the Superzahl. Add the Superzahl (1 in 10) and it becomes ten times harder: 1 in 139,838,160.
You often see the rounded figure 1 in 140 million. The mathematically exact value is 1 in 139,838,160. The difference is small and does not matter much for intuition. We still mention it here because exact numbers hold up better.
Jackpot hit chance per prize class
These values apply to the period since 4 May 2013, so to every lottery slip you fill out today.
These odds are per line played. The more lines are in play for one draw, the more likely it is that <em>someone</em> hits. That's how we get from per-line odds to the jackpot hit chance for the whole draw.
This week's live jackpot hit chance
In about 16 out of 100 weeks with a similar play volume, someone wins the jackpot. In the other 84, the pot rolls over.
Data source: game volume of the most recently finalized draw from lotto.de.
What is similarly unlikely (games & math)
We deliberately do not compare the class-1 chance with lightning or asteroids here. There is a separate article for that. This section stays in the mathematical universe.
| Event | Probability | vs. jackpot |
|---|---|---|
| 6 correct + Superzahl | 1 : 139.838.160 | 1× |
| Royal Flush in poker (5 cards) | 1 : 649.740 | 215× more likely |
| 27 heads in a row when flipping a coin | 1 : 134.217.728 | roughly equal |
| Bingo: full card in 4 calls (75-ball bingo) | 1 : 89.000.000 | 1,6× more likely |
| Six 6s in a row on a single die | 1 : 46.656 | 2.997× more likely |
| Grand Hand in Skat (all trumps in one hand) | 1 : 2.704.156 | 52× more likely |
Everyday comparisons are more vivid: lightning, asteroids, twins. We collect those in our article 1 in 140 million: how unlikely the jackpot really is.
What actually happened in recent draws
Even a 60 percent jackpot hit chance means this: in 4 out of 10 weeks, the jackpot rolls over untouched. Here are the latest jackpot-hit draws and a few high-volume weeks where nobody hit.
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20.12.2025 SaturdayJackpot before draw ca. 31,5 Mio. €Lines (approx.) ca. 42,3 Mio.Cracking chance 26 %no class 1 winner
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06.12.2025 SaturdayJackpot before draw ca. 19,9 Mio. €Lines (approx.) ca. 41,7 Mio.Cracking chance 26 %no class 1 winner
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19.04.2025 SaturdayJackpot before draw ca. 4,7 Mio. €Lines (approx.) ca. 45,5 Mio.Cracking chance 28 %no class 1 winner
Math does not care about expectations. A 60 percent jackpot hit chance does not mean someone will hit, only that it is likely.
Frequently asked questions
How exactly is the jackpot hit chance per draw calculated?
Formula: 1 − (1 − 1/139,838,160)k, where k is the number of lines played. We estimate k from the game volume (volume ÷ €1.20 per line). With 80 million lines, that comes out at around 43 percent.
Why does game volume fluctuate so much?
Higher jackpots attract more players. At €5 million, Germany typically plays 20 to 30 million lines. At €45 million, that can climb to 100 million. Seasonal effects, like the summer slump, and holidays make the swings even bigger.
What happens to the money if nobody cracks the jackpot?
The class-1 share rolls over untouched into the next draw. Since November 2023, there has been a €50 million cap. If the jackpot is not won at €50 million, the entire pot goes to the next-lower prize class with winners.
What does the jackpot hit chance mean for me as an individual player?
Nothing. Your personal chance stays at 1 in 139,838,160 per line, no matter how many others play. The jackpot hit chance only says how likely it is that <em>somebody</em> hits. Not whether that somebody is you.
Can two players share the jackpot?
Yes. The prize is then split between the winners. Multi-winner jackpots are rare, but they do happen. The table above shows draws with multiple winners.
Sources
- Class-1 odds: combinatorially computed from C(49,6) × 10 (Superzahl), see Wikipedia, Lotto.
- Odds for all 9 prize classes: DLTB prize classes.
- Per-draw game volume: lotto.de, ingested through the Lottoeule data pipeline.
- Maximum jackpot rule since November 2023: DLTB press release.
- Royal Flush: 4 of 2,598,960 hand combinations, see Wikipedia, Poker probability.
- Bingo full-card probability: standard combinatorial calculation for 75-ball bingo, see Wikipedia, Bingo probabilities.
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